Xbox 360 to flop in Japan?

It debuts in Japan on Saturday (12/10/05) and obituaries are already written:

Forbes offers the following quotes:

'No one -- consumers or software makers -- has been talking about the Xbox 360 lately, although we only have a couple of days before the release,' Tokai Tokyo Research Center analyst Nobuyuki Kawamata said.

'Given also the fact that basic functions of Xbox 360 are inferior to Sony's next-generation machine, and that there are not many newly-developed titles ready for the Japanese launch, Xbox 360 is not likely to become a must-buy console here in Japan,' Kawamata said.

How important is Japan to the success of Xbox 360? Forbes reports:

'Given declining enthusiasm for the Xbox 360 by Japanese players and software makers, it would be almost impossible for Microsoft to overtake Sony or even Nintendo,' said Shinko Securities analyst Yuichi Kobayashi.

Read the Forbes article at its site linked here.

Bloomberg News reported in November 2005 that Microsoft spent $12 billion developing its Xbox machines. Read a Bloomberg News blurb linked here.

Placing a positive spin on things is Game Daily Biz:

Somewhat encouraging is that interest in the Xbox 360 seems to be on the rise. The Computer Entertainment Supplier's Association (CESA) recently released the results of its Tokyo Game Show survey and of the more than 1,000 attendees more said they were looking forward to the Xbox 360 (23%) than the Nintendo Revolution (20.9%). It should be noted, though, that Xbox 360 games were playable at TGS and the show goers had not yet heard about the Revolution controller.

Read the article at the GameDailyBiz site linked here.

Placing a less positive spin on things is Gamespot adding the additional sentence about Playstation 3: (Emphasis added.)

Last month the Computer Entertainment Supplier's Association (CESA) released the results of a survey it took during September's Tokyo Game Show 2005, in which 23 percent of participants said they were interested in the Xbox 360, while 20.9 percent expressed an interest in Nintendo's forthcoming Revolution console. Both systems' numbers were topped by the PlayStation 3, which drew the interest of 70 percent of showgoers.

Read the article at Gamespot site linked here.